EST Monday NHC forecast was a compromise between these extremes. Steering currents will be weak once Eta merges with the upper level trough on Tuesday, and it’s not yet clear whether Eta might meander in the Gulf of Mexico all week, as suggested by the GFS model, or be tugged to the north and then northeast later in the week by a trough of low pressure passing to the north, as predicted by the European model. After curving west-southwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico, the long-term motion of Eta was highly uncertain. The black line is the mean of the 31 ensemble members individual ensemble member forecasts are the thin lines, color-coded by the central pressure they predict for Eta. EST) Monday, November 9, run of the GFS ensemble model (GEFS). Track forecasts out to eight days for Eta from the 6Z (1 a.m. However, there is also dry air associated with the trough, and that dry air will continue to affect Eta, potentially putting the brakes on any rapid intensification. Fueling that intensification, Eta will be over the warm waters of the Loop Current in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where ocean temperatures are near 29 degrees Celsius (84☏). During this process, wind shear will fall from the high to moderate range, potentially allowing Eta to intensify into a category 1 hurricane. This low is expected to merge with Eta by Tuesday. The counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system to its southwest will steer Eta to the west-southwest, away from Florida, on Monday. averaged 3.2 named storm landfalls per year, 1.6 hurricane landfalls, and 0.5 major hurricane landfalls. Remarkably, Eta was the first of the 2020 landfalls to occur in Florida, which is the most hurricane-prone state. Third place is jointly held by 20, with eight. landfalls in a single year, set in 1916, far in the rearview mirror. in 2020, leaving the old record of nine U.S. (Image credit: Steve Bowen, Aon) Eta is record-extending 12th named storm of a season to hit U.S.Įta is the 12th named storm to make landfall in the U.S. Moderate coastal flooding occurred in the Florida Keys at Vaca Key from a storm surge of 1.68 feet. To the north of Miami, in Broward County, a storm surge of 1.73 feet was observed at South Port Everglades during the Monday morning high tide, resulting in minor coastal flooding. EST Monday high-tide cycle, when a storm surge of 2.1 feet brought moderate coastal flooding at Virginia Key, the barrier island to the east of Miami. The peak storm flooding occurred near the 2 a.m. Moderate coastal flooding from a two-foot storm surgeĮta generated a modest storm surge along the southeast Florida coast near Miami, where onshore winds piled up a storm surge of about two feet. EST Monday, November 9, according to the NWS:ĥ1 mph, Miami. Here are some of the top wind gusts as of 6 a.m. EST Monday, power had been restored to all but 40,000 customers, according to. Strong winds from Eta affected much of the southern Florida coast on Sunday, knocking out power to over 200,000 customers at various times. (Image credit: NOAA) Eta’s winds and gusts Eta dumped over 14 inches of rain (turquoise colors) in southern Florida. Rainfall amounts for the 48-hour period ending at 7 a.m. EST Monday, November 9:ĥ.48 inches, Miami. Some top 48-hour rainfall amounts reported by the National Weather Service for Florida, as of 6 a.m. The heaviest rains, in excess of a foot, fell in Broward County, where Fort Lauderdale is located (see the tweet from National Hurricane Center forecaster Eric Blake). Persistent rainbands from Eta set up over portions of southern and central Florida this past weekend, resulting in torrential rains that caused widespread urban flooding.
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